Is Clayface a hit? Box office opening and verdict

DC Studios' Clayface topped the box office on its opening weekend, but it's also the lowest opening ever for a recent DC movie. The real winner of the weekend may be A24's You Can See Everything, the Nathan Fielder documentary that has convinced a decent number of people it's worth seeing in theaters.

Here's an interesting problem: Hollywood is making good movies, but most audiences don't think they're theater worthy.

You Can See Everything could become the first documentary nominated for best picture

The bar is pretty low for documentaries, but You Can See Everything is quickly becoming one of the most successful documentaries of all time. It could also become the first documentary ever nominated for best picture. Convincing awards voters is the next hurdle. I think the bigger problem is convincing them that it's a documentary at all, although some documentary fans argue there are different types of documentaries.

I saw it and I think it's on a slippery slope ethically and morally. That's part of the point, and I know some people would argue with me. Still, it's a discussion starter, and that's impressive. I would say it's in fact more performance art than documentary. So yes, I think a best picture nomination is guaranteed, but now that I've seen it, not a win.

It's still early in the awards campaign and things could change, but I think The Odyssey and Netflix's limited release title that I'll come back to below are the front runners to win best picture.

Street Fighter dropped 72% in its second weekend

The big loser of the weekend is Street Fighter. We knew it would drop, but not 72% in its second weekend. That's worse than Thor: Love and Thunder's second weekend drop. The movie that dropped that much in its second weekend was The Flash.

The case for Clayface as a winner: number one, an A minus CinemaScore and a lean budget

Clayface is number one, and that gives the new Skydance mega studio two number ones in a row. Last weekend's number one, Street Fighter, didn't do so well in its second weekend, but that's still a nice headline. Clayface also has far better scores across the board, from critics and audiences. With Halloween coming and the only major new release being Netflix's The Mosquito Bowl, Clayface could have an incredible hold. If it drops only in the 20s or 30s, we'll be having a great conversation.

The A minus CinemaScore is particularly impressive for a comic book movie and especially for a horror movie. That's almost unheard of, a Weapons level score. CinemaScore can't be influenced by fans, which is why it remains the gold standard. But plenty of recent movies have had similar scores and still haven't made a ton of money. It's the sad truth: just because your movie is good doesn't mean it will perform financially.

Clayface doesn't have to make a ton, though, because DC Studios was very savvy with the budget. How refreshing. It only has to make about 100 million dollars worldwide to break even, and in one weekend it's pretty much halfway there. If it can break even in theaters, do very well on digital and at home, and pivot the narrative about the quality of DC content, that sounds like a winner.

I came across an HBO Max ad pushing its DC lineup: The Penguin, Lanterns and The Batman. With the exception of Lanterns episode 8, that's an amazing lineup. If HBO can have enough content like that to draw people in and combat churn, that's fantastic.

The animated series episodes behind Clayface, and Clayface's audience

I rewatched the two part animated series episodes that Clayface is based on, and it was a lot of fun. It made me want to go back to the animated series. It was supposed to be a kids show, and it was so sophisticated. That show and the Fox X-Men series created many of the comic book fans you see today. What's the equivalent now to create the next generation of fans? I guess the movies, but there should be an equivalent.

Clayface did best with the coveted 18 to 34 group, plus cinephile audiences. It couldn't play in IMAX because Street Fighter had that locked down for two weekends, which ended up being a waste. I wish there were a clause in IMAX's agreements that if a movie isn't performing, it could be pulled or made to share screens with another film. Even so, half of Clayface's opening came from non IMAX premium large formats. That's real cash.

It's also fair to say it's an R rated film, and an R rating significantly limits the audience. That's why the sweet spot for Hollywood remains PG-13. One could counter that Joker and Deadpool had no problems at the box office. But one could counter that counter by saying Clayface is no Joker or Deadpool; it's a much less well known character. With these audience scores, perhaps a new star for Batman's rogues gallery has been born.

The case for Clayface as a loser: DC is supposed to perform better

It's hard to ignore that DC as a franchise is simply supposed to perform better than this. It's similar to Transformers, now at the same studio. Fans might have enjoyed some recent offerings, but the franchise was underperforming, period, and that's why David Ellison is bringing back Steven Spielberg and Michael Bay. That's really the only argument for Clayface being a loser, but it's a strong one.

Here's what I think is the complex reality. Mike Flanagan comes out of this best, with another feather in his cap. Tom Rhys Harries is another winner and is now on everyone's radar, fans included. And Clayface has been fundamentally altered and leveled up as a Batman character. I'll be interested to see whether that change shows up in the comics. If I were at DC Comics, I'd be putting together a comic to capitalize on this film, and I would read it for sure.

James Gunn and Peter Safran just bought themselves more time as the heads of DC Studios, but I'm sure they'll still be watched very closely. These scores are amazing, they were fiscally responsible with the budget, and they could be looking at an amazing second weekend hold. If the drop is more than 40%, though, we start to approach Sony villain solo movie territory, and nobody wants to be there.

Why Clayface raises the question of villains without their heroes

I think a big takeaway is that this might be a great reimagining of a Batman villain, but why couldn't he have been in a Batman movie? "Audiences have now made it crystal clear they do not want to see villains on their own." They want to see them opposite their heroes. Even The Penguin, while it won many awards, wasn't a strong ratings performer. The hero centric Lanterns, despite all the headlines from HBO, didn't look good on the Nielsen charts either.

David Ellison and his team are not Mike De Luca and Pam Abdy. Ellison got into the movie business because he loves blockbusters, so while I'm sure he appreciates art, money and popularity are the objective. On Transformers, he didn't look for hot new talent the way Sony got Zach Cregger for Resident Evil. He went old school, for what's arguably a surer bet.

James Gunn seems close to making this work. Superman outgrossed Marvel's movies that year, Lanterns was hot for seven of its eight episodes, and these Clayface scores are strong. But if DC Studios doesn't start making money and charting, I think Ellison will likely bring in new but old school blood to run it, most likely an executive or producer instead of a creative, which I think should have been the choice all along.

I think much of Hollywood will watch how Bond performs, because Amazon put two producers, Amy Pascal and David Heyman, in charge. Peter Safran is the producer of the DC pair and has been moderately successful, but he's never had a strong identity as a producer or put out the kind of mega hits Pascal and Heyman have. There are only so many producers like that.

Man of Tomorrow carries the weight of the DC slate

A lot is riding on Man of Tomorrow, the animated Dynamic Duo movie, a Jimmy Olsen show and the Mister Miracle animated series, which are in post production. I bet James Gunn wishes he had a stronger lineup there. I have faith in Man of Tomorrow, though I think there are cameos in it from movies that underperformed, and I worry about them undercutting the film. I liked Superman so much that I have hope.

Maybe the Poison Ivy show will get a green light at HBO because of the strength of The Penguin and now Clayface's audience scores. But I think it would be weird for Ellison and his team to let Gunn keep building on such an unstable foundation. The answer on Gunn may have to wait until Man of Tomorrow arrives in July.

You Can See Everything's secretive A24 campaign is working

Right behind Clayface is You Can See Everything, with the intentionally controversial A24 sidestepping a CinemaScore and running a very strong, secretive campaign to make this the movie of the moment. It's working. It still has the best per theater average in the top 10, and with so many shows sold out, shows for the following weekend are already close to selling out as people want to see it for themselves.

I think it could have easily been around two hours. However, I think being so long makes it seem more special. It's a mind game in every conceivable way, which some people like about it. Without spoiling it, "I respect the film, but I do not personally care for it."

The audience is still skewing white even with strong word of mouth, but Hollywood feels it can get to around 80 million dollars domestic, which would be incredible for a documentary and for Nathan Fielder. I think he's cut from the same cloth as Conan O'Brien, and I'm not a huge Conan fan either. Both have smaller, more niche but very cinephile fan bases, rarely do well in the ratings, but have occasional breakthrough moments and extremely loyal fans. They should team up; I think it would do well. As I said before, it probably has until the first weekend of November, when Godzilla Minus Zero hits IMAX.

Wildwood, Wicker and the other new releases

Cinephiles are excited about Wildwood, which Laika is self distributing through Fathom Events after no studio was willing to sign on. Someone I know in animation told me that with an animated movie, the budget is the operating cost of the studio for however long it takes to make the film. Because Wildwood took so long, it carries the burden of the entire studio, and that's been too big an ask for a studio to underwrite. The scores are fantastic and I think Laika is running a very good awards campaign, but the box office isn't great.

Some of the latest trailers, I think, highlight the scarier aspects, but it still leans more fairy tale. In a perfect world, it and Disney's Hex would have switched dates, with Hex for Halloween and Wildwood for Thanksgiving. But Disney doesn't want to give up that Thanksgiving date, even if it effectively kills a film that isn't a fit with that holiday. Stop motion is also, I think, a very hard sell for modern audiences, and hardly any families showed up. Pixar in its heyday won both families and cinephiles, which created a juggernaut. Laika has never duplicated its breakout success with Coraline, but it looks like a shoo in for the best animated feature Oscar, partly because its competition is proving weak. Its only real competition, I'd say, is Toy Story 5, thanks to its very strong messaging about kids and technology.

Wicker did better than I ever thought it would, opening at number five. The box office isn't that competitive, but that's still amazing. Its audience is 79% female, and I'm sure it's essentially a giant ad for when it soon goes to digital, where women can see it in private. Klara and the Sun opened in about as many theaters as You Can See Everything did a week earlier, but couldn't even make the top 10.

The rest of the top 10, from Street Fighter to Resident Evil

Street Fighter's plunge delivers a death blow to any chances for a sequel and does heavy damage to the resumes of everyone involved. It's performing close to Masters of the Universe, with both Nicholas Galitzine and Noah Centineo failing to prove themselves as leading men at the multiplex even though both have done very well on streaming. Ironically, Centineo was first cast as He-Man but dropped out when his contract expired because the movie took so long.

Other Mommy looks good in comparison. The previous weekend's new releases, Sense and Sensibility and Whalefall, had significant drops despite strong scores, particularly the first film's audience scores, with most audiences feeling these aren't theater worthy either. Resident Evil is about to leave the top 10 with close to 400 million dollars, an incredible win for the franchise, Zach Cregger and Austin Abrams.

Netflix's awards strategy for its limited release title

Netflix's limited release title, one of my best picture front runners, added only five theaters and still has a very strong per theater average. Netflix is officially reporting these numbers, but I don't think it will ever go really wide; its long theatrical window instead demonstrates Netflix's commitment to theatrical. The Critics Choice nominations are announced Friday, December 4, and the Golden Globe nominations on Monday, December 7. The film drops on Netflix December 2, right in that window, so it can capitalize on what I think are sure to be nominations across the board.

Lanterns gets no binge bump on Nielsen

On Nielsen's chart for the second week of October, Lanterns ends with a whimper. The final episode aired right before the chart window opened, since HBO puts its big shows out on Sunday nights and the chart starts on Monday, so you'd think the finale would at least hold as people binged, but it's off the acquired chart even though the bar was just 475 million minutes, and Lanterns had been in the mid 500s. One has to wonder if the bad reaction to episode 8 shut down any binge bump.

On the overall chart, Carrie shows why it got its season 2 renewal, and Netflix's Below is very strong. It's nice to see East of Eden building momentum in the US, and I hope it stays in the Emmy conversation; it seems like a perfect show for the Golden Globes, though I'm not sure about the qualifying windows. Ted Lasso is still a star for Apple TV, Ben Affleck for Netflix and Taylor Sheridan for Paramount Plus, though I think Sheridan is leaving for movies. Percy Jackson charted on Netflix between seasons, which is amazing. Coraline returned to HBO at the start of October, perhaps to promote Wildwood, but that might have backfired as some people may have felt their stop motion itch was scratched for free.

Netflix's global chart and The Diplomat's missing renewal

Netflix's global chart shows what an international hit Josh Hartnett's new show is, blowing East of Eden out of the water. I wonder whether East of Eden is too American a story somehow. The Diplomat is getting love from critics and fans for its explosive fourth season, which was very good, but it's still not big in the ratings and keeps getting nominations while rarely winning. It still hasn't been officially renewed for a season 5 despite very clearly setting one up. It would be nuts if it didn't get one. Maybe the turmoil at Netflix as it swaps out executives is delaying it.

Netflix's quick turnaround Instadocs series, with its focus on AI, has done very well and might be priming audiences for Artificial, Luca Guadagnino's movie about Sam Altman starring Andrew Garfield, later this year. Ben Affleck's comments about using AI on his new movie haven't slowed it down, while Tyler Perry and Ice Age are hot on Netflix, along with Corpse Bride. On Apple's digital chart, Spider-Man is on top, and I suspect it will stay there until The Odyssey drops on November 17; The Odyssey is already in the top 10 on preorders alone.

Henry Cavill's Highlander and the Halloween weekend slate

Another release is in the digital top 10 because it's on sale for just 5 dollars, but I've got to say Henry Cavill can still sell tickets. He didn't for Argylle, but for the most part he still has an audience. After a long break, he's coming back in 2027 with two movies for Amazon: Voltron at home and Chad Stahelski's Highlander in theaters. With Cavill, Russell Crowe and Dave Bautista, I think many of us will check Highlander out no matter what, because it's too interesting a package.

Halloween lands on a Saturday, which is great for the holiday but bad for Hollywood, so there's hardly any new content. I've always thought that was weird, and I'd love some new holiday themed releases. The only new theatrical releases are The Mosquito Bowl and Disney's Everest IMAX documentary, which has IMAX for one week before Godzilla Minus Zero and Ramayana. On digital, Forgotten Island finally arrives, which I've been waiting for, along with Dog Stars, a movie that's nuts in the third act. Netflix drops its very tragic Matthew Perry documentary, which I think could do quite well, and Dexter: Resurrection season 2 starts on Paramount Plus alongside Nocturne on Apple TV. Meanwhile Clayface, You Can See Everything and Wildwood are all hoping for strong holds this weekend.