House of the Dragon: How the Catspaw Dagger and Aegon's Dream Prophecy Connect Everything

The catspaw dagger might be the single biggest lingering mystery in House of the Dragon, and I think it deserves a proper breakdown. This blade worked its way around almost every major character in both shows, and understanding where it has been tells you a lot about why the Targaryen civil war happened at all.

In House of the Dragon, the dagger passed from Aegon the Conqueror down his line to Jaehaerys, then to Viserys, then on to Rhaenyra. Aegon II then took it after his father's death, and he now holds it in the wake of Rook's Rest. We do not know exactly what happens to it from here, but I want to walk through the timeline and explain what the prince who was promised prophecy actually means, because it matters to why this war is happening in the first place.

The Prince That Was Promised Prophecy Explains Why the War Could Have Been Avoided

The blade itself foreshadows a lot in the main series. The prophecy says: "from my blood will come the prince that was promised, and his will be the Song of Ice and Fire." In Game of Thrones there were many contenders for that title, including Stannis, Rhaegar and Jon Snow, but it was ultimately Arya who stopped the Night King. Whether she was actually the prince who was promised is something fans still debate, because in High Valyrian the word "prince" is genderless, meaning it could have applied to her. It is also possible it meant Jon, or Dany, or even both of them at once. We never got the full reveal fleshed out because, as I put it, D&D decided to cut the season down to go work on their Star Wars project, which, well, how is that going? They have not cleared it up themselves, and if George does not finish the books then we may never get concrete answers on who it was.

What we are starting to see in House of the Dragon, though, is why the prophecy was never passed along in the first place. The houses are in a massive civil war, and while the greens have the dagger, the blacks have the prophecy. The bloodshed of the dance of the dragons could have been avoided had Aegon's dream been passed down the line of Targaryen kings, which was his original intention, and had Alicent not misunderstood what Viserys told her toward the end of season one.

Viserys Explained Aegon's Dream of the Long Night in Episode One

In episode one, Viserys explains it directly: "Aegon foresaw the end of the world of men. It's to begin with a terrible winter gusting out of the distant North. Aegon saw absolute darkness riding on those winds, and whatever dwells within will destroy the world of the living. When this great winter comes, Rhaenyra, all of Westeros must stand against it, and if the world of men is to survive, a Targaryen must be seated on the Iron Throne, a king or queen strong enough to unite the realm against the cold and the dark. Aegon called his dream the Song of Ice and Fire." Based on that, my guess is Aegon foresaw the Battle of Winterfell from season eight, though I am not entirely sure how he saw anything clearly given how dark that episode actually was.

Other Targaryen Prophecies Suggest Aegon's Vision Was Real

Prophecies have appeared throughout the franchise. Bran saw the explosion of wildfire at the Great Sept of Baelor. Daenerys had a vision of her own fate shown at the end of season two. In the books, Daenys the Dreamer foresaw the Doom, which is what made the family flee Old Valyria before the volcanic eruption. Rhaenyra saw a son sat on the Iron Throne, and Helaena muttered multiple prophecies across two seasons. Because of all that, it is reasonable to presume Aegon really did see what was coming. I would love to see that era on screen at some point, though with the Jon Snow spin-off cancelled and Blood Moon only getting a pilot made, I highly doubt it. We are getting A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms, based on the Dunk and Egg stories, which is a fantastic read, and I will cover it once the trailer and episodes arrive. That show has potential to flesh things out further, since "Egg" is also a nickname belonging to an Aegon Targaryen, though a different one from either of the two we see in House of the Dragon.

Why the Dagger Itself Points Back to Aegon's Warning

The catspaw dagger is made of Valyrian steel combined with dragonglass, the only material besides Valyrian steel that can kill a White Walker. That is why it makes sense the Targaryens would wear dragonglass jewelry and ensure each house had a Valyrian blade, if Aegon knew what was coming. The book Sam finds in the main series reads: "When Aegon the Conqueror forged his Seven Kingdoms, he and his descendants would often decorate their blades with dragonglass, feeling a kinship with the stone. The royal fashion for dragonglass ornamentation soon spread throughout the Seven Kingdoms to those wealthy enough to afford it. Hilts and pommels were and are the most common decoration for dragonglass, if too brittle to make a useful crossguard; indeed its very brittleness is what relegates it to the great houses and the most successful merchants."

The Dagger's Game of Thrones History and the Blood on the Blade

The dagger made its debut in Game of Thrones episode two when an assassin sent to kill Bran used it as a weapon, and Catelyn was cut defending him. That mirrors Rhaenyra defending her son against Alicent in episode seven of House of the Dragon, right after Aemond's eye was taken. This matters because the prophecy states blood comes from the blade, and Jon Snow, through his father Rhaegar, traces his blood all the way back to Rhaenyra, which is why the Tower of Joy and Lyanna Stark reveal was so significant. Daenerys was also born amid smoke and salt, which is how Azor Ahai, another name for the prince who was promised, was said to be born. Because the High Valyrian term is genderless, the prince who was promised could potentially be both of them.

After the attack on Bran, Catelyn took the dagger to King's Landing to investigate, which began Ned's downfall and eventually led to his execution. The dagger belonged to Littlefinger despite his claim it was lost to Tyrion, and that lie led Catelyn to accuse Tyrion of hiring the assassin. In the books, it was actually Joffrey, reacting to Robert Baratheon discussing how Bran would be crippled and deciding it would be more humane to kill him. Everyone was a suspect, including Littlefinger himself, who had given Bran the dagger in the first place purely to try to gain his trust, which fits his pattern of manipulating people by making them like him. Bran then gave the dagger to Arya, and Ned got justice from beyond the grave when Littlefinger was tried for killing Lysa Arryn, conspiring with Cersei against Ned, and being complicit in the attempt on Bran's life. Arya killed him with that same blade, a poetic way to end his story, and the dagger was later used to stop the Night King before Arya sailed off to become, in my words, a pirate queen or adventurer or whatever it is, with no spin-off confirmed yet.

Aegon II Now Holds the Blade, But Does He Understand It

In House of the Dragon, Aegon had the blade only to lose control of it after being injured at the Battle of Rook's Rest. Carrying Aegon the Conqueror's blade makes him seem more legitimate, and I do wonder if he managed to read the secret inscription on it. My guess is he probably would not understand the writing even if he saw it, since he has clearly been slacking on his High Valyrian, whereas Aemond is shown to be highly fluent in the language and would know exactly what it said. Alicent, meanwhile, now knows of the prophecy since Rhaenyra explained it to her, so the show could potentially be laying groundwork there.

Alys Rivers Could Tie the Prophecy to Melisandre

There is also an interesting parallel worth flagging, though it touches on book material that could spoil a major show storyline. Alys Rivers has been a mystical figure in House of the Dragon, and she is very much aligned with Melisandre from the main series, someone who aligned herself with the prince who was promised and tried to help carry out the prophecy. In the books, Aemond ends up in a relationship with Alys, who becomes his paramour, and they have a child together whose fate is left unknown by the end of the book. I think the prophecy could play into that somehow, with Alys potentially learning of it and spreading word among other witches, eventually reaching Melisandre. I have no confirmation of that happening, but I think it would be a cool way to tie the whole thing together.

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Do you think the prince who was promised prophecy could apply to both Jon Snow and Daenerys, or even to Aemond and Alys Rivers' storyline down the line? Let me know your theory in the comments.