Dune Part Three: will it hit $1 billion against Doomsday?

Dune Part Three has a runtime, and at 151 minutes, or 2 hours and 31 minutes, it will be the shortest film in Denis Villeneuve's Dune trilogy. I think that runtime is perfect. The film is one of my most anticipated, and its advance IMAX sales look strong. Even so, I don't think it will hit the billion dollars a friend of mine is betting on.

Dune Part Three runs 2 hours and 31 minutes, shorter than both earlier films

According to a report, AMC and then the Irish Film Classification Office have confirmed that the movie will clock in at 151 minutes. That makes it the shortest film of the three. The first Dune ran 155 minutes, and the second ran 2 hours and 46 minutes.

The new film reportedly has more than an hour shot for IMAX. The shorter length is expected, because Dune Messiah is the shortest book in Herbert's novel series. It is only a little over one third the word count of the original novel.

The report adds that Villeneuve is expected to take creative liberties with the material, much more so than he did with the first two films. He could also potentially work elements of the following novel, Children of Dune, into the story.

Dune Part Three IMAX presales and a possible 120 million dollar opening

The runtime news arrives as advance sales for the IMAX release are staggering. One site that monitors seats at all 34 IMAX 70mm theaters in the US shows that only 448 of 2,982 of the best seats are still open at weekend shows.

Global box office reports say the film crossed 25 million dollars in presales at the domestic box office 48 days before release. That puts it ahead of The Odyssey and makes a 120 million dollar domestic debut possible. In London, the BFI IMAX sold 33,000 advance tickets, setting a first day record. Dune Part Three opens on December 18.

Why I don't think Dune Part Three will make a billion dollars

A friend and I have a bet about Dune Part Three. He believes it's going to be a billion dollar movie. The point came up in the discussion that he might have a better chance now that it's shorter, but I don't think length matters either way. If the movies are good, there are enough IMAX theaters, and people go back to see them again, the length doesn't matter. Spider-Man: Brand New Day was 2 hours and 25 minutes, and The Odyssey was almost three hours.

I do think the billion dollar bet is not as crazy as I first thought. I still don't think it will happen, though. I can't imagine it, especially with Doomsday in theaters at the same time. The two are going to compete.

My first thought was that it's the same audience, so people wouldn't see both. But if all the Doomsday shows are sold out in a given week and there are still a couple of Dune shows left, people might decide to go see Dune instead. Maybe that happens, I don't know. I still think Dune 3 will post a major number, landing in the 800 millions. If you compare its 25 million dollars in presales with Doomsday's 125 million dollars, that is significantly different. But I'm not sure.

Is Dune Part Three rated R or PG-13?

A question came up about whether the film is rated R. I don't think it is. I think the first two were PG-13. There's nothing in them I can imagine earning an R. There's no heavy sex and no cursing, though there is violence.

Someone pointed out that there are those giant worms. That's true, and maybe that's why it gets the PG-13. I think it's PG-13.

Why Dune Part Three feels like the first real sequel

To me, this is the first direct sequel. The first and second movies are one story, one book, split into two parts. Dune Part Three is a separate book and a brand new story. That's why I'm excited for this one.

I can't wait for Dune and I can't wait for Doomsday. It feels like what summer used to feel like, when you'd go see the big May and June movies and one came right after another. The discussion added that this time it's happening in winter, which is kind of cool.

The December box office record that changed release dates

Before one particular movie, no film had ever opened to 100 million dollars over a three day weekend in December. Avatar came out in December and did not cross 100 million dollars in its first weekend, which is crazy when you think about it.

I'm pretty sure Star Wars: The Force Awakens was the first movie to cross that line. I think it was something like 120 million dollars, whatever it was. No movie had ever done it in December before, and that's when everybody started putting movies out in December.

As for Dune Part Three, I think 151 minutes is the right length. Once we see the movie, we'll find out whether it should have been longer or shorter.