Avengers: Endgame Passes Avatar for the Box Office Crown, but $3 Billion Now Looks Out of Reach

It's official: Avengers: Endgame has passed Avatar to become the highest grossing movie of all time. The thing it now looks unlikely to do is become the first movie ever to make $3 billion. John Rocha and I got into what that means for Doomsday, why Digger is reportedly on course to lose Warner Bros. around $150 million, and how Verity ended up at number one.

James Gunn Doesn't Need to Answer Every Critic

Before the box office, we started with James Gunn's latest round of posts. John said he'd been reading Gunn's tweets and that "someone should take the phone away from him." This time Gunn was responding to Frank Grillo. John's read is that Grillo posted an image he probably found online to show he's excited about the movie, and Gunn answered it.

My view is that Gunn doesn't need to do this. He's running the studio and he's got a hit with Lanterns. I haven't seen the finale yet, but I hear it's pretty good. People are excited about Man of Tomorrow, and after the loss with Supergirl he's back on a win. If someone asks, "Why do we need a Clayface movie?" he doesn't need to respond. In fairness, one of the things people still really like about him is how accessible he is. He's got the job and we don't.

Avengers: Endgame Reclaims the Crown With Its Encore Run

Make no mistake, this was the plan for Disney and Marvel. They pushed the Encore as something you had to see to know what's going on, which apparently isn't true, because they knew they could pass their own Avatar this way. The Russo brothers have shared their reaction to the news on Instagram.

According to the report I read, the 2019 blockbuster went back into theaters as Avengers: Endgame Encore. It's an extended version with a new ending and a few post credit scenes meant to set up Doomsday. The Encore total is now $126 million, which the report points out is the same amount Supergirl made in its entire run this summer, and that pushes Endgame to $2.926 billion. The same report says it holds the crown until Avatar comes out next year. It also says Spider-Man: Brand New Day will finish around $2.5 billion. That's almost a billion dollars more than I thought it would make. I was expecting $1.7 or $1.8 billion, which would already have been an amazing number.

Why $3 Billion Looks Unlikely for Endgame but Not for Doomsday

The report says that after a significant drop in its second weekend, Endgame won't become the first movie to hit $3 billion in the coming weeks. John asked whether it would need another $80 million, and I'd put it at something like that, a little less than $80 million. I'd said there were two scenarios. Passing Avatar was definitely possible, even though some people said it couldn't happen, and it did. Hitting $3 billion was the long shot. I thought it was possible, but it doesn't look possible now. The bigger story, I think, is that this bodes very well for Doomsday.

John agreed on Doomsday but thinks the highest grossing title now means "absolutely nothing" because studios can keep re-releasing movies with added footage. His line was "You either do it on your first run or don't talk to me anymore." He pointed out that Brand New Day is apparently getting re-released too, with Rosario Dawson footage and a couple of other scenes. He also said he and Michael Vogel argue about this on Geek Buddies. Vogel thinks there's no way Doomsday crosses $3 billion. John thinks it's absolutely going to get there if it's good, because people have been starved for event movies. He called $126 million for a movie people already own "insane."

Superhero Fatigue or Just Bad Superhero Movies?

I agree with two sentiments at once. It isn't just superhero fatigue. It's mediocre or bad superhero movies. But there is also fatigue, because if there weren't, everybody would see everything. With big IP like Spider-Man and the Avengers, if it's good, people will keep showing up. The harder play now is original material or obscure characters. Supergirl was obscure and people didn't like it. Thunderbolts was really good and still didn't perform, because people didn't know who those characters were. Maybe the current plan changes that. I don't know.

John said we're no longer in the heyday, when a Captain Marvel that was pretty much universally not liked could make a billion dollars. Audiences are more selective now, and he thinks maybe Doomsday, and Man of Tomorrow too, sparks a second or arguably third golden age. He said studios are desperate to make IP work, and that smaller independent movies don't make their money back in the numbers big IP movies do when those are done well. He allowed that this isn't true all the time, pointing to the Jurassic World movies.

On Brand New Day, I think Destin Daniel Cretton is firing on all cylinders. We also both gave Tom Holland credit. Actors say a million times that they only came back for the right story, but this time it looks like he was telling the truth.

Digger Is Reportedly Headed for a Loss Around $150 Million

The Tom Cruise led, Alejandro González Iñárritu directed Digger is reportedly on track to be the year's biggest bomb. Deadline puts loss estimates around $150 million. It's on track to haul in $8 million domestically and $12 million overseas in its first weekend, a $20 million global start and Cruise's lowest opening in 19 years. The reported net budget is $160 million including UK tax credits, with nearly $100 million in global marketing, for a total bill of about $275 million. It's projected to earn about $127 million in revenue across all windows, for a $148 million loss, and that number could go higher if home viewing disappoints. It's pegged as the last film of former Warner chiefs Michael De Luca and Pam Abdy.

John and I See Digger Very Differently

My theory is that Warner tried to repeat its One Battle After Another strategy. That movie was an awards success but wasn't a box office success, and the bet with Digger was to roughly break even and get a Best Director nomination while selling Cruise's filmography. That didn't work monetarily or critically. The other problem is that One Battle After Another was accessible to a mainstream audience and Digger is not. It's one of the most confusing movies I've seen in a long time. It reminded me of Split, which I hated until the ending transformed it for me. A critic told me about a twist, and knowing it was coming, I couldn't get invested. By the end, I was on board with what they pieced together. It's shot masterfully and acted wonderfully, but I think it was too far of a shot for Warner Bros. right now. Critics have it at 51 percent. I gave it a 2.9.

John loved it. He said it eviscerates both sides of a political debate and makes fun of the audience, and that directors including Guillermo del Toro have praised it. He thinks it'll be a cult classic and be appreciated 20 to 30 years from now. He called it sad that studios can't take chances anymore, pointing to Blade Runner, It's a Wonderful Life and Citizen Kane as flops. He said it's a shame De Luca and Abdy don't get another year. He also defended The Bride, which he loved. We agreed that a movie star alone doesn't bring in the box office anymore, even with Cruise promoting it everywhere.

Verity Takes Number One

Verity opened at number one with $32 million domestic on a reported $40 million production budget. I think that's pretty good for a movie you wouldn't expect to drive people to theaters. John has zero interest in it. I like Josh Hartnett, Anne Hathaway and Dakota Johnson.

Bloomberg Says David Ellison Backed the DCU Plan After Visiting the Man of Tomorrow Set

The other big story is Paramount, which is now happening. Whether they stick to the agreements or maneuver around them is yet to be determined. ComicBookMovie has a piece on Man of Tomorrow getting positive early word, along with new details on why Ellison decided to back the 10-year DCU plan. According to a new Bloomberg report, David Ellison made that decision after paying a visit to the Man of Tomorrow set while it was filming earlier this year, where he listened as James Gunn and Peter Safran outlined the 10-year plan. Evidently impressed, he supported the strategy.

This comes after confirmation this week that Gunn and Safran will remain DC Studios co-CEOs under the Skydance banner, following news that Paramount got the go-ahead to finalize its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. So it's business as usual for now, although Bloomberg also confirms that Gunn and Safran's contracts officially expire in April 2027, and the piece suggests Ellison might rethink things if Man of Tomorrow tanks.

Gunn Has an Assembly Cut and Says He's Already Writing His Next Film

Gunn confirmed on Threads that he has completed an assembly cut of Man of Tomorrow and has already started on his next DCU movie. Asked whether he was ready to write his next film, he replied: "Already in it. I had something to do while I was waiting. I had to do something while I was waiting for the assembly." I don't mind this kind of response. I still think he has platforms, like his DC show, where he'd probably want to share news first, but if he's going to drop information this way every once in a while, I think that's pretty interesting.

On the buzz front, Jeff Sneider said on The Hot Mic that he's heard good things internally about the movie. John, who co-hosts that show, confirmed he didn't elaborate. Other scoopers, including Charles Murphy, have shared similar reports. The film also reportedly brings back Blue Beetle and gives John Stewart his big screen debut, and there's a lot of speculation that Adria Arjona is playing Wonder Woman rather than Maxima. She said she filmed her scenes as the movie was wrapping up, which may support the rumor that her role is minor and sets up a later appearance.

Everything Rides on Man of Tomorrow

I've always said that if you take the politics out of it and look at the business side, it would be bad business to buy a studio, especially with a property like DC, and throw out the guy with a plan because you don't like his politics. You sit down and hear what he has to say. Ellison, as John has said too, is a movie fan. If he's on set, the movie looks pretty good, and they pitch Justice League and Batman, that sounds like money.

Here's what I think will happen. If Clayface bombs, which I hope it doesn't, people will say they're on their last legs. But Clayface means nothing in the long run because it was made for $20 million. It would mean a lot if it does really well. Man of Tomorrow is different, and we agreed it all rides on that movie. If critics and fans don't like it, Gunn and Safran could be out the door.

John said he doesn't know how much of the reported 10-year plan is true, but agreed keeping it going is smart business. For him, the question is how much Ellison influences the direction, and he thinks it becomes untenable if they're being told what to make. He thinks Ellison is smart enough not to upset the apple cart while he has other fires to put out, and is betting on Gunn's track record with films he actually directs. After Man of Tomorrow, John thinks Ellison will have his finger on the scale a little more.

The Adria Arjona Wonder Woman Debate Isn't Settled

We also went back and forth on Justice League possibly arriving before a DCU Batman movie. The worry is repeating the jump to Batman v Superman without letting anyone build. The counterargument is that with The Batman Part II still coming, a separate Batman in Justice League might be easier for audiences to follow, with his solo film feeling almost like a spinoff.

On Arjona, it was floated that the Wonder Woman casting could be a swerve and she might be playing someone else entirely, possibly not even Maxima. There were doubts about whether she's shown she can carry a franchise, with Andor countered by the point that TV isn't film. My view is that studios and agents go for the next step up, and she's well sought after, so her agent would push for Wonder Woman rather than a side character. John said Arjona is a better actress than Gal Gadot, but he credited Gadot with a confidence that he thinks helped her carry a franchise. If Arjona weren't Wonder Woman, this felt like one rumor Gunn should have shut down.

From Joel Silver to Dune Versus Doomsday

I worked for Joel Silver, who ran Silver Pictures and Dark Castle with between three and six movies a year, when most production companies were lucky to have one. I was making just about $500 a week assisting two executives, which was unheard of, and eventually I had to choose between them. It felt like a divorce. I chose David Gambino, who is like the older brother I never had, and I'm still very close with Eric Olsen.

Asked about Dune or Doomsday, I give the slight edge to Doomsday because I know the plan leading into Secret Wars and the X-Men, but I'm pumped for both. John is looking forward to Dune more, partly because of the seven minutes of footage they were shown.

On star power, I think movie stars still enhance an IP, like Ryan Gosling in a Star Wars movie, but we're past the days of seeing something just because Stallone or Arnold is in it. Among actors I'll always check out, I named Leo, Tom Hardy and Jessie Buckley, who was phenomenal in The Bride even though I didn't like the movie.

Do you think Man of Tomorrow will decide Gunn and Safran's future at DC?