Clayface box office: why a 57% second weekend drop hurts

It's been more trick than treat for James Gunn and Peter Safran this Halloween weekend, which is a horrible time for Halloween to fall for Hollywood. Clayface fell 57% in its second weekend, and that drop is the real story regardless of whether it ends up at number one.

The top spot is a photo finish. Both Warner Bros. and A24 insist they have the number one movie. A24 reported a higher number for You Can See Everything, now in its third weekend, but Warner Bros. and some in the industry feel A24 is a bit too bullish on its Sunday predictions. Even if Clayface claws back the top spot, a 57% drop is close to 60. Ideally it would have fallen somewhere around 30 to 40%.

Robert Downey Jr. and Pedro Pascal Promote Avengers: Doomsday for Halloween

Before getting to DC, Avengers: Doomsday got some homegrown Halloween publicity from Robert Downey Jr. and Pedro Pascal that I think was effective. Pedro Pascal has proven, I think, to be very good on social media, and I agree with the general view that the MIT sweatshirt was a clever touch.

I wonder if some of the Marvel magic Robert Downey Jr. brings could rub off on Pascal, who didn't have the best start as Mr. Fantastic. Historically the big rivalry has been Downey versus Chris Evans, but in the comics it's Doctor Doom versus Mr. Fantastic, and the films haven't established any relationship between the two. Maybe this helps a little in that regard.

Clayface Should Break Even, but DC Studios Has a Weak Track Record

To be fair, Clayface is on track to break even and maybe even turn a little profit, thanks to a very responsible budget. It's going to finish around where Supergirl finished, and Supergirl had a very irresponsible budget. Still, three movies in, this is not a great track record for Gunn and Safran's DC Studios.

These low numbers were rare even for the DCEU, outside of the pandemic. I'm being kind by pointing out that those were pandemic movies, because one of them was a Gunn movie. Even Marvel at its lowest is rarely this low, and hasn't been for quite some time.

The lowest grossing characters across the board are the ones who will be in Man of Tomorrow. That film will also feature John Stewart from Lanterns, which never managed to make Nielsen's overall chart, something other HBO shows have managed.

Man of Tomorrow Needs Around 800 Million Dollars, and Lacks a Big Star

To turn things around, I'd say Man of Tomorrow needs to match or improve on The Batman, which made just under 800 million dollars worldwide, and be in line with the Guardians of the Galaxy films that got Gunn this job. At the end of the day, I think it needs an eight in front of its worldwide total. That's a lot to make up when the first film did a little over 600 million, and it might be tough because there isn't a single big name actor in it.

I know many people say movie stars aren't a thing, but I think they make a little difference. Guardians made some real stars, and Chris Pratt had the Jurassic franchise as well, so he leveled up quickly. Clayface doesn't have a single well known actor. I love its lead and wouldn't replace him, but perhaps he needed some backup.

Robert Pattinson helped The Batman enormously, first through curiosity and then by turning out to be fabulous. He's built himself into somewhat of a draw. He also had Jeffrey Wright, John Turturro and Colin Farrell around him. None is huge on their own, but I think the sum looks stronger, and the makeup for Farrell added curiosity too. Maybe Mr. Irrelevant, which is tracking to be a hit for the holidays, will level up David Corenswet into more of a star.

Should Gunn Have Cast a Known Actor as Brainiac?

We'll see how Brainiac turns out. He might be a brilliant bit of casting, but perhaps Gunn should have gone with a known actor. DC movies have excelled for decades with big names playing big villains. I rewatched 1989's Batman for Batman Day, and not only is it great to have Jack Nicholson in the role, it's amazing that he's not phoning it in. He takes it seriously, as many actors have, to their benefit and the franchises'.

But who would you get? Michael Fassbender? Cillian Murphy, perhaps, coming off his Oscar? He would be a good choice. The question is whether anyone reliably bankable these days could and would play Brainiac.

Skydance Should Swap the Superman and Minecraft 2 Release Dates

The competition is crowded. Man of Tomorrow opens shortly after Spider-Verse 3, the Ocean's Eleven prequel, also from Warner Bros., and Shrek 5. Shortly after it arrives come Minecraft 2, again from Warner Bros., and A Quiet Place 3 from what is now sister studio Paramount.

I strongly believe Skydance should switch the Superman and Minecraft 2 release dates while there's still time, and give Superman the Comic-Con weekend spot. That worked so well for Deadpool and Wolverine, particularly because Ryan Reynolds knew how to work that situation. James Gunn, though, seems afraid of Comic-Con.

Gunn is very stubborn in how he runs DC Studios: no beefcake or cheesecake, no building a cinematic universe, no postcredit scenes, and a focus on quirky side characters. When he gets called out on social media, he argues with fans like a guy whose franchise is working. Yet he's not stubborn enough about what he said would be his golden rule, that nothing would go into production until the script was great.

You Can See Everything Has Probably Hit Its Theatrical Peak

It would be nice for You Can See Everything to get the number one spot, though it doesn't need it as much as Clayface. It pretty much has it no matter what happens on Monday, because nobody ever pays attention to the retraction. Was A24's Sunday estimate, if it turns out to be wrong, intentional or unintentional? We'll never know, but it's hilarious.

The film added a thousand theaters and still dropped a decent amount, which to me means it has reached the peak of its theatrical popularity. Next it'll probably have a high point on digital, then on streaming, at different price points for curious people who don't want to pay much. That's a clever strategy by A24: it's in theaters making a splash now, it'll be on digital when most of the industry is voting on nominations, and it'll hit streaming when most people are voting for winners.

It's already a pop culture phenomenon, which is tricky, because you don't want to overstay your welcome. Jimmy Fallon and Jamie Lee Curtis did a bit, as did Daniel Radcliffe and Tracy Morgan. I don't think anyone else should, because it'll get old fast. I think Conan will revisit it for the Oscars, as I think everybody wants, and hopefully he can find a fresh spin.

The DGA Ruled You Can See Everything Ineligible for Its Top Director Award

Not everyone is swept up in the mania. The Directors Guild decided this quasi documentary couldn't qualify for its best director award, because directors of documentaries and animated films can't compete for the main prize. That hurts, since the DGA is one of the best predictors of best picture and best director at the Oscars. Christopher Nolan, head of the DGA, has been silent. He's competing himself this year, so there's a bit of a conflict of interest.

Co-directors Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim, along with A24, felt that because the film isn't totally a documentary, it could qualify as a narrative film. I've said it isn't a documentary at all; I feel it's performance art. It might end up in a no man's land between genres, and I bet a couple of folks in the documentary category don't want it either and might call it category fraud. If I were A24, though, I'd just want it kept in the conversation.

I think this is the first sign that more traditional narrative and documentary films might not be too friendly toward this outlier, which could mess up its awards chances. All it needs, really, is a best picture nomination, which would make it the first documentary ever to get one, though I'm sure they'd like to go further. I think Fielder and Oppenheim will qualify for best director at every other awards show, but the DGA might set the tone.

Wildwood Held Better Than Clayface, but Its Numbers Are Low

Best animated feature frontrunner Wildwood fell just 39% in its second weekend, the kind of hold Clayface was dreaming of, but its overall number is really bad. The silver lining is that it can be the put upon underdog against Toy Story 5, its main competition for the award.

I finally saw it, and based on the very dark and disturbing opening scene alone, I can see why no studio would release it and it had to go through Fathom Events. It isn't a movie for kids and families, and I get why they made up only 7% of the opening weekend audience. That means it won't compete with The Cat in the Hat and Hexed, but how long Fathom can keep it on screens is a real question in a crowded November. It has been on the smallest screens from day one, and I bet in many of its best markets it's losing screens to You Can See Everything. I think it'll do very well on digital, perhaps even better.

I don't know that Laika could afford to stay in business with numbers like this, which is why it's funded by Nike. It's been seven years since Laika's last release, and the cost covers those years too. I think it's not 100 million dollars. I don't know if it's 400 million. It's probably somewhere in between, and that's a lot against very little box office return.

Netflix's Mosquito Bowl Struggled and Cliff Booth Lost Regal and Cinemark IMAX Screens

Netflix opened Mosquito Bowl on just 349 screens, and it didn't go well, with a poor per theater average. Given the lineup in front of and behind the camera, including Peter Berg, what did they expect? The critic score is worse, and there weren't enough ratings for a Rotten Tomatoes audience score or enough theaters for a CinemaScore.

Next is The Misadventures of Cliff Booth, which might not do big numbers either. The trailer wasn't great, and I think almost everyone had the same thought: it has to be better than that with this talent. Even for those willing to take a leap of faith on Fincher, Tarantino and Pitt and pay a premium price for a Netflix film, Netflix has barely advertised it. Regal and Cinemark announced they won't play it on IMAX because it's only a two week release, and they don't want to take Hunger Games, a real theatrical release, off those screens for Netflix's experiment. This was originally Narnia's two week window, and perhaps that's another reason Narnia moved.

Only AMC will put it on IMAX, and when tickets went on sale they were not exactly robust, which surprised me, especially at AMC Lincoln Square. I don't think Netflix made clear they were on sale, and I think those screens will sell out. But who wants a three hour non holiday drama on Thanksgiving weekend? AMC is only selling the first week, even though the first weekend of December is when more people could go. It doesn't hit Netflix until December 23rd. I saw The Irishman in theaters, and Netflix made it special by renting a Broadway theater, giving it extra sparkle.

Wicker, Resident Evil and Other Mommy Held Strong, While Street Fighter Fell Hardest

Wicker fell just 28% in its second weekend, a surprise hit that is going to generate enough interest that more people might click on it when it hits digital and streaming. Resident Evil fell only 13% in its seventh weekend, which is very nice for Austin Abrams, and Other Mommy held up well too. That's not great for Clayface, as many people chose older films over the new one.

Street Fighter had the weekend's highest drop and will barely hit 100 million dollars worldwide. Clayface and Street Fighter are in the same boat, though Street Fighter opened bigger and Clayface has much better scores. Surely Skydance hoped for more from DC and the Capcom game, since the Warner Bros. purchase was all about that IP. BTS got another concert film into the top 10, and Brad Pitt's Heart of the Beast for Paramount rounds it out.

Streaming: The Diplomat, Ted Lasso and Nobody Wants This

On Nielsen's mid-October chart, The Diplomat remains a bridesmaid for Netflix, and it got its season 5 announcement after the executive shuffle. Below and Carry are on top, and Crystal Lake is off to a good start on Peacock. East of Eden slipped to the originals chart. Ted Lasso season 4 is still holding on, and Jason Sudeikis says he wants seasons 5 and 6. I think at least season 5 will happen given the ratings, though season 4 created a potential out for Roy Kent and Keeley Jones, and I don't know if the show could survive losing them. I enjoyed season 4 more than I expected.

Ben Affleck's Animals continues to do well for Netflix. I watched A Nightmare on Elm Street on HBO Max, Johnny Depp's first movie. On Netflix's chart, Below is number one, with Nobody Wants This season 3 and The Diplomat season 4 behind it. Nobody Wants This has had a lot of offscreen drama, but it's inexpensive with many cliffhangers, so I think it'll get one more season to wrap up, and I'd like to see that. From, originally on MGM Plus, is charting after moving to Netflix. Ice Age does well, Percy Jackson didn't stick, and K-Pop Demon Hunters has left the chart. Its sequel isn't coming until 2029, and Netflix intends to put it in theaters first. I'd be nervous; I think it should be in theaters and on Netflix day and date.

On Apple's digital chart, Verity knocked Spider-Man from number one, giving Anne Hathaway two films in the top 10. Halloween and Hocus Pocus remain favorites, and The Dog Stars is barely holding on.

Godzilla Minus Zero and Ramayana Bring International Films to North American Theaters

The North American multiplex is about to get very international as Japan's Godzilla Minus Zero and India's Ramayana open, making our marquees look more like everyone else's. Both run around three hours. As I understand it, Ramayana keeps organic voice acting but uses AI to change lip movement. I'm going to see both with subtitles, and I think they should do quite well. The Cat in the Hat, I Play Rocky and Wild Horse 9 also open wide, with Club Kid in limited release, and there aren't enough theaters for all of them.

Primetime arrives on digital, and Netflix jumps into Christmas with its first holiday movie of the season. The Gilded Age returns with season 4, and I think it's the best season yet. Prime Video drops all eight episodes of The Greatest, All's Fair somehow got a season 2, Netflix brings back Black Doves and North of North, Awkwafina gets a cooking show on Apple TV, and the UK series It Gets Worse comes to Paramount Plus in the US. It's raining season 2s.