House of the Dragon Season 4: What Fire and Blood Suggests Comes After Tumbleton

With season 3 over, I am looking ahead to the fourth and final season of House of the Dragon, and yes, they are saying it is still just going to be four seasons. The book gives us a fair idea of where things could go, even though a fair bit has changed, such as Aegon teaming up with Aemond and Hugh's possible reasons for switching sides.

I want to walk through what happens in Fire and Blood and mix in my own ideas along the way, including why I think ending on one particular king would be a bit more poetic.

The Battle of Tumbleton proves to be a pivotal moment for both the greens and the blacks

As I said in my breakdown, I did not know if the Battle of Tumbleton could be topped. It was the best battle in the history of the show, and it is where I want to start, because it proves to be a pivotal moment for both the book and the show. Most plot points have been building to the greens and blacks finally having a huge battle, and this delivered. In the past it has been dragon versus dragon, or Corlys's forces against the Triarchy, but this was the actual greens and blacks fighting.

In the book there were actually two battles of Tumbleton, and the first was seen as a huge loss for team black. Rhaenyra's forces were defending the town and thought they were safe because they had the most dragons. They were very wrong, as both Ulf and Hugh defected to the greens. It was not clear why they switched sides in the book, but it is thought that they either wanted better titles or simply panicked when they saw the green forces and reality finally sank in.

I have to say that the book reads more like a history textbook. You do not get what the characters are thinking or doing in the moment; it is all old accounts and witness testimonies, so the intent behind certain decisions is missing. The show has its faults, and while I think it has made some bad additions, I also think it has made some good ones, like Aegon's dream being passed down the line of kings in Westeros.

Ulf could fall foul of the caltrops plot in season 4

The show also let us see Ulf slowly defect because he was sick of being mistreated by Daemon, and he was beaten in the street by him and then by Ormund. It led to the best resignation I have ever seen. In the book, however, he was a total brute, and this only got worse after the first battle of Tumbleton. I can see that happening in season 4 as he deals with the fallout.

The Hightower remnants were so sick of the turncloaks that they arranged to have them both killed. So I expect Ulf to fall foul of what became known as the caltrops, and to be killed for what he did in the finale. Jon Roxton found Ormund's burned body, and it will be clear this was carried out by dragonfire.

Hugh Hammer's prophecy, and why the show may hand it to Ulf

Hugh is a different case. In the book he is also a brute, but he believes he could be king because of a prophecy that spread through the camp: "When the hammer shall fall upon the dragon a new king shall arise and none shall stand before him." Where the words came from remains a mystery. They did not come from Hugh himself, who could neither read nor write, but within a few days every man at Tumbleton had heard them.

Personally, I think Ulf is more that kind of character. He has been written as possibly having his eyes on the throne, and the show has made a big deal of his desire for better lands and titles, so maybe Ulf will fall into this new prophecy instead.

The reason I bring this up is that I suspect there are different motivations for why Hugh is going to defect, like the whole dead wife thing. It seemed he might defect after seeing Rhaenyra wanting to burn the town, but he may blame her for his wife's death and then side with the greens. His dragon is also snuggling up to Ulf's, and they clearly have some rapport from being assigned to the same post.

Unwin Peake and Jon Roxton could fill the power vacuum at Tumbleton

Unwin Peake is a major character who has not been introduced in the Tumbleton story, though he plays quite a big part in the book. Ryan Condal has promised new characters and dragons in season 4, so I expect we could see Peake. In the book he tried to take charge of the town after Ormund's death and was part of the caltrops plot. He even survived the second battle of Tumbleton.

Jon Roxton also played a major role after the battle. One lord was actually killed when the town was taken in the book, but the show has kept him alive and we saw him with his wife. In the book, Jon took her for himself after the first battle, and I expect all order to go out the window now that Ormund is dead. Ulf killing Ormund was new for the show, so with him having a dragon and being the one to win the day for the Hightowers, there is going to be a fair bit of tension between Jon and Ulf.

The second battle of Tumbleton, which was a win for the blacks in the book, is potentially coming too. I am interested to see how this goes, because the show may just combine them into one big Battle of Tumbleton.

Aegon and Aemond are on the road together, which the book doesn't do at this point

Aegon's return was a major change, with Tom Glynn-Carney delivering a performance that stole the episode as he chastised his brother. The king demanded that Aemond come with him to Tumbleton, and though they never arrived in the finale, they are on their way despite Alys's pleas. At this point in the book, Aegon's whereabouts are unknown and Aemond was burning the Riverlands, so the show is clearly altering things.

The problem for the greens is that Aemond does not have his dragon at the moment. He did have a redemption moment, which mirrored Daemon bending the knee to Rhaenyra in season 2. I expect he is going to try to make up for attempting to kill his brother, and he may follow him through the first half of season 4. That will then likely lead to the Gods Eye.

Daemon and Aemond have been on a collision course since season 1

The Gods Eye has been set up since season 1, with tension ever since Daemon and Aemond almost fought after the toast to those strong boys. Daemon then hired Blood and Cheese to kill Aemond after he killed Lucerys, which caused its own blowback. Alys also said Daemon would die at Harrenhal, and Helaena delivered the news to Aemond, foreshadowing a showdown that sees both leave the story. Both experienced strange times at the castle, both are hotheaded, and both have caused problems for their monarchs.

In the book, Daemon went to Harrenhal and waited 13 days for Aemond, who had gone to burn the Riverlands. This left just Alys at the cursed castle, and Sabitha Frey went there to take it back. The show has adapted this, which is why Sabitha pestered Rhaenyra about it and was told to go and take it. That was left dangling, and I do think we will see her do it next time.

Either way, the Gods Eye will happen, and we should see the princes fight high in the sky. Dragon fights in season 3 were impressive, and I expect this to be a very big one. In the book, Aemond arrives with Alys, who is heavily pregnant, and because of that I wonder if we may get a small time jump between seasons, or if season 4 will cover a longer period like season 1 did. On Inside the Episode for the finale, Ewan Mitchell mentioned that Aemond will need to choose between his duty to his brother and a life with Alys, so I think that will pay off when he leaves her to fight Daemon.

The fight is brutal in the book. Daemon leapt from his dragon to stab Aemond through the eye, and both fell into the water below along with their dragons. Aemond's remains were later found chained to Vhagar, but Daemon was nowhere to be found. In my finale breakdown I predicted Daemon might run away to live with Rhaena, which the book sort of touches on since his body was never found. The show has changed Rhaena's story to match Nettles, and in the book Nettles and Daemon were thought to have a sexual relationship, though some suspected it was more father and daughter. At the end of Tumbleton, Daemon looked horrified by the destruction, so I think he might give it all up after killing Aemond and go to look after Rhaena.

Rhaenyra's turn to fire and blood could cost her King's Landing

That battle kick started the end of Rhaenyra's reign, and I think that is where we go next. After being the most moral person on the show, she has finally given in to Daemon's way of ruling with fire and blood. She had the High Septon killed, which shows she has stopped trying to placate the church. The Targaryens have had to feign interest in the Faith of the Seven, and Aegon did this to unite the realm. It is like politicians who say they are religious but clearly are not. The Targaryens follow the old gods of Valyria, but Westeros, like Europe in the Middle Ages, takes its faith very seriously.

In the book, the city turned against her over harsh taxes and what happened with Helaena. The greens hid the crown's gold, taxes were levied, and Rhaenyra earned a nickname likening her to Maegor. The show has referenced both the name and the taxes, and Tyland Lannister is being blamed by the small folk. As he puts it, "It's as if I have been installed here as some sort of scapegoat." Filth was then smeared on the door of his home, but things are about to get a lot worse.

The public rose after Helaena's death, sending King's Landing into riots. In the book, Larys Strong spread rumours that the queen was behind it. In the show, the public will probably hate her for killing their religious leader and talking about danger from beyond the Wall before Helaena died. That sounds like a public relations nightmare, and I think the city is a tinderbox just looking for a reason to riot.

The Shepherd, and whether Mysaria could take his place

In the book, the riots saw the rise of the Shepherd, a badly burned religious leader to the disgruntled small folk, who preached that the only way to stop the Targaryens was to storm the Dragonpit. I did think someone might raise a figure like that, and even considered that Aegon could fit the part. I also saw a great theory on Reddit that Mysaria could fill the role of the Shepherd, which we will see.

Mysaria begged Rhaenyra to keep the wellbeing of her citizens in mind, but the queen stopped hearing petitions, and with no Hand, the small folk's plight went unheard. The madam warned the White Worm that the highborn will only ever see her as what she was before she came to court, and that proved right. Mysaria knows the queen has gone too far, so she may take over the efforts to get rid of Rhaenyra.

In the book, she stayed behind after warning Rhaenyra that her position in the capital was untenable. Once the city fell, an illegitimate son of Viserys was installed, who I think we may have seen a glimpse of in season 1. Mysaria was told she would be freed if she survived a naked walk while being whipped, but she died halfway. I think she may feel responsible for helping Rhaenyra take power and try to stop it.

The fall of the Dragonpit is something I think we will definitely see

In the book, the Dragonpit was stormed by the Shepherd's followers, which Helaena saw in her dream. Ryan Condal has promised new dragons as well, and Shrykos, Morghul, Tyraxes, Dreamfyre and Syrax all die during the fall of the Dragonpit. We saw Dreamfyre in the vision, and Helaena being on top of it is clearly not happening, but maybe we will get a similar shot without her riding it.

Corlys in the cells could turn the men of Driftmark

Corlys might be someone who can help Mysaria. In the book, he was imprisoned after trying to warn Addam that the queen would imprison him because Ulf and Hugh switched sides. In the finale, Velaryon soldiers appeared at King's Landing and Alyn used them to protect the queen. In the book, they were already in the city, and once Corlys was arrested they tried a coup and joined the riots.

The show played it differently, with Corlys taken prisoner for trying to broker a peace. I think he will no longer be Hand and will be locked up, which may cause him to turn, so the men of Driftmark could try to liberate him. I also wonder if it will create tension between Alyn and the men, as he is clearly seeking power and position; perhaps for obeying Rhaenyra in the Sept, he will be made Hand.

In the book, after being warned, Addam went to the Isle of Faces and supposedly met the Green Men, who were seen earlier this season, then went to burn Tumbleton and fought Daeron's dragon above the town. We never saw Daeron's body, and it is said that if you do not see the body, the character is not dead.

Ending with Aegon on the throne would be a bit more poetic

House of the Dragon is only the Dance of the Dragons section of Fire and Blood, so the story continues, but the most obvious natural end point is Rhaenyra's death. In the book, Aegon took Dragonstone in a successful coup. After King's Landing fell, Rhaenyra sold her crown for passage to the island, only to learn Aegon was still alive, and he fed her to his dragon. His reign was short and sad, which is quite literally what it is called in the book.

The dance was not over. Aegon had to make a deal with Corlys and Alyn for ships, but after the second battle of Tumbleton, the Rivermen smashed the greens at the Battle of the Kingsroad, and Larys poisoned Aegon when he refused to surrender the city. Aegon the Younger was installed, and in the show he is currently in Pentos.

It could end with either Aegon, but I feel ending with Aegon the Older would be more poetic: a massive war causing untold death, only to be back where we started. I do not think he has been told about the prince who was promised prophecy, which could be why it does not get passed on. Everything has been about ego and a family squabble that has done nothing for the people of Westeros. It also sets up why the dance begins the end of the Targaryen dynasty: most of the dragons died, and there are none by A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms, 78 years later. He is probably not going to be a good king, which makes sense of everything that follows.

Which Aegon do you think should be sitting on the Iron Throne when House of the Dragon ends?