Godzilla Minus Zero review: Is the Minus One sequel Oscar worthy?

I've already seen Godzilla Minus Zero, and it's great, though I don't like it better than Godzilla Minus One. I saw a lot of the buzz before I went to see it, and I said this is Oscar worthy, so John Rocha and I talked through whether the Academy would actually nominate it.

I like Godzilla Minus Zero, just not more than Godzilla Minus One

People ask me, and they're going to ask John once he sees it, whether I like it better than Minus One. My answer is no. That doesn't mean it isn't a good movie. It's great. Minus One was just so special to me because I was expecting nothing from it.

People got mad at me when I said this, but a lot of times you see the formula of a Godzilla movie. That doesn't mean it's bad; it just means you know the formula. They usually focus on the monsters, and in some of the studio ones they try to give you a human story and you never care. Godzilla Minus One just happens to be "a really great movie that happens to have monsters in it." It's a human story about what the lead and the woman he ends up with are going through, the ramifications of World War II and putting your life back together, and it happens to have a kaiju in it.

Godzilla Minus Zero gets more epic while keeping the human story

Minus Zero does the same thing. You care about the characters, and it's a very well made film. It gets a little more epic in scale. That's not to say the first one wasn't, but there's a little more to it here.

I didn't watch any trailers going in, so I asked John what they show. He said they hint at other kaiju but don't say which ones, though some people have speculated from the sounds who they might be. That's good to know, because I don't want to spoil anything.

What I can say is that, between the new characters and the older ones we were already with, there are emotional moments throughout that you really invest in, so when things go wrong, it means something. It's set in that post World War II era, and it resonates. It doesn't just repeat the beats of the first one. The characters are still dealing with the trauma they went through, plus the fact that they had to deal with Godzilla, and now there's new trouble to worry about. And "I 100% with no apologies teared up at the end."

Could the Academy nominate Godzilla Minus Zero for best picture?

That led to my question for John, who hasn't seen it yet: even if it's amazing, is there a world where the Academy would actually nominate it? I took the foreign film category out of the question to make it harder.

We did talk about the foreign film route briefly. That depends on whether the movie is submitted to represent its country, because the Academy can't simply nominate a film on its own in that category. A quick check during our conversation suggested Japan has already made its submission, which seemed to close that door.

The early best picture contenders we talked about

Right now, we see The Odyssey getting nominated. Project Hail Mary will probably get in too, and Wild Horse Nine, the one with John Malkovich, also came up as a likely nominee. Dune Part Three looks like a shoo in. Other titles being kicked around included Digger, The Invite and The Debut.

On Digger, the hope was there but the expectation wasn't: it had a 60% drop, and if it had bounced back this weekend, maybe things would look different. Prime Time came up as well, with the view that it isn't getting the greatest reviews and might be up for an acting nomination rather than best picture. I Play Rocky was mentioned as a film more people are saying will probably get nominated.

John made the case that we've seen the Academy play around in the world of populist films, and that it would be interesting to see them start nominating populist films from other countries. That could be the next step, he said. He hasn't seen it, but if the movie is that exceptional, then why not? He also thinks they're releasing it later in the year to get legitimate awards consideration, and that the people behind it understand what they're doing with it and its potential. I agree. Minus the monster aspect, it's built like an Academy movie.

Ray Gun and the short list of animated best picture nominees

Ray Gun is also building some buzz, either for best picture or for best animated feature. It got a lot of love and was called amazing, and it has a real shot in animation but may not cross over into best picture.

That raised the question of which animated movies have been nominated for best picture. We landed on Beauty and the Beast, Up and Toy Story 3, and we agreed Toy Story 3 deserved it. Even with all of these, there are still a lot of spots open.

Minus One made $116 million on a $10 million budget

A lot depends on how Minus Zero does at the box office. Godzilla Minus One had a $10 million budget and a $116 million box office. As for Minus Zero's budget, the guess was probably a bit more, around $15 million.

It's a little tricky, because I think the budgets count way differently there. The point came up that if you can make a $15 million monster movie look like that, without it looking fake at all, whoever can do that should be making all the Star Wars movies. They don't have the talent costs, inflated budgets, taxes and other costs you pay here. A lot of times when you see a $180 million budget and don't see it on screen, it's all the other expenses, like talent and travel.

John Rocha thinks a nomination is very possible

When I asked John directly whether a Godzilla movie has a shot, he said he thinks everything is in play nowadays. It's a much more global marketplace, the awards have become more global, and they want to bring in more viewers. Nominating Godzilla Minus One would bring in an even bigger international audience to the Oscars, so he thinks it's very possible.

He also pointed out that the Academy is getting younger with its voters, and younger voters aren't as caught up in how an Oscar movie should be. They care more about the overall effect of a film, whether it's sci fi, horror or comedy. "If it's great, I want to nominate it," he said. So, we'll see.

Do you think Godzilla Minus Zero belongs in the best picture race?