Modern Warfare 4 sales: is it really trailing Black Ops 7?

Modern Warfare 4's launch numbers are in, and they show the franchise losing ground on PlayStation and Xbox compared with Black Ops 7. I didn't want to write about this, but I think the decline was predictable. With GTA 6 arriving soon, I think things could go really bad here.

Modern Warfare 4, from Infinity Ward, follows Modern Warfare (2019), Modern Warfare 2, Modern Warfare 3, Black Ops 6 and Black Ops 7. When I wrote this, GTA 6 was 17 days from launch. To me, the whole situation is a tragedy, because so much of it could have been avoided.

Why I saw the Modern Warfare 4 decline coming

We've been talking about the writing on the wall for about a year. Once we learned when GTA 6 was coming, and that Modern Warfare 4 would be the next Call of Duty, we could see the perfect storm that was probably going to happen.

Then came the summer and all of its ups and downs. The Call of Duty community manager account did what it does. Infinity Ward ran its beta and promised that everything would stay the same when it came to matchmaking. That wasn't a good promise, but it was a promise nonetheless.

Activision talked about how Black Ops 7 didn't hit the mark, how it was ready to listen to the community, and how things were going to be different. Sledgehammer is on the clock with a new subseries. We've seen this song and dance many times. Through all of it, there's been an inability to be transparent and move past corporate speak on skill based matchmaking, which I find wild.

A week before these numbers surfaced, Activision and Call of Duty were calling this one of the best received Call of Duty games ever. Yet, as far as I know, no sales figures were attached to that claim. There was no marketing saying this many million copies sold. Of course they'll market their game positively, because they want you to buy it.

Call of Duty has been declining since Warzone propped it up

There are two sides to these numbers, as there are every year, and I'll argue both. But every red arrow points down. Warzone propped up the franchise when 2020 came, and since then it has been decline after decline. Call of Duty isn't the top dog anymore by any means. Plenty of other games, many outside the shooter genre, now take time away from it.

We had the debacle that was Modern Warfare 2, and then Black Ops 7. Many people say they enjoy Black Ops 7 now, but it came with the crazy movement and skill based matchmaking that has run through every one of these games.

The Black Ops 1 and 2 ports reminded players what made Call of Duty fun

Then came the Black Ops 1 and 2 ports. They made Activision a lot of money for minimal effort. It was plug and play. That's why I think we're probably going to get a Modern Warfare 2 port soon, and I think they're going to have to.

But those ports were a double edged sword. They also reminded Call of Duty players what was fun about the series: its randomness. One match is very sweaty and goes down to the wire, the next you're pub stomping, and there's a casual match in between. You never know what you're going to get. People remembered that, rejoiced in it and supported it. In the process, they were reminded how different modern Call of Duty, meaning Modern Warfare 4, has become.

Circana's Modern Warfare 4 vs Black Ops 7 launch numbers

That brings me to a Charlie Intel post, sourced to Circana. Some people will say Circana's figures are just made up estimates, and others say they're legitimate and trustworthy. Either way, these are the numbers that come out every year. The figures show the percentage of active players on each platform who played Call of Duty during each game's launch window.

For Modern Warfare 4, the figures in the US were 19% on PS5, 17% on Xbox and 4.2% on Steam. For Black Ops 7, they were 23% on PS5, 29% on Xbox and 1.5% on Steam. Modern Warfare 4's launch is the week ending October 24, and Black Ops 7's is the week ending November 15, so each had its allotted time.

Side by side, PS5 is down 4%. Xbox dropped from 29% to 17%, which I'd call massive. Steam went up almost 3%. I'd say that's probably down to DMZ, which is mostly played on PC. I feel like that's where the boost comes from. The post also said a Circana analyst confirmed the Black Ops 7 numbers include PS4, but that was less than 1%.

The caveats, and why I don't think they change the picture

I understand there are asterisks and discrepancies. Black Ops 7 was on Game Pass, and Modern Warfare 4 is not. Modern Warfare 4's version of Warzone hasn't officially launched yet, and that would bolster the numbers too. But these are still the numbers out there.

Those caveats don't change what's happening. It's the decline. It's the decay. The overall picture those numbers give me is that Call of Duty keeps declining and isn't being received the way it needs to be to stay on top.

We have subseries fatigue at the highest level. Maybe it comes from the rotation of developers trying to put something out every single year. The one time they tried to stop, they backed off and did it anyway. Maybe they felt scared to give anybody a chance and leaned hard on their legacy franchises instead. They drained every drop out of Black Ops and Modern Warfare, and it's almost sad. These were storied franchises. A new Black Ops set the world on fire, and Modern Warfare was even bigger. Now, in 2026, Call of Duty has a serious problem.

Why I think GTA 6 will hit Modern Warfare 4 hard

I'm not trying to be a pessimist or speak things into existence, but when GTA 6 comes out, I think it's game over. Any number or data you see is going to drop.

Someone at Activision, I believe the CEO, said Call of Duty would get a boost from GTA 6 because it will sit in the console dashboard next to Modern Warfare 4 and people will buy. I don't think that's how it works, and I don't see the logic. There will be more eyes on the dashboard, but people are there for a specific reason. It isn't to download an arcade style shooter that isn't really an arcade style shooter anymore. I know he has to say what he has to say. But I think the alarm lights are going to be spinning very soon, which we all knew and they probably knew too.

My prediction: a Modern Warfare 2 port before the end of the year

That puts pressure on a Modern Warfare 2 port arriving quickly. My prediction is that we get the classic, original Modern Warfare 2, or whichever port is next, it doesn't matter which, before the end of the year. I know that's a bold prediction, since it's less than two months away.

My reasoning is that when the GTA 6 tidal wave hits, shareholders won't care. They want the price to go up, and Activision answers to them. The best way to pivot is something plug and play, and a port has already been proven to work with Black Ops 1 and 2. They have to keep the money flowing somehow. We're already getting what I think is the earliest season ever in Call of Duty history with Modern Warfare 4 Season 1, and Warzone will help a little.

Sledgehammer's new subseries could decide Call of Duty's future

Sledgehammer is supposedly, allegedly working on a brand new subseries in the background, and I'm excited for it. I'm a Sledgehammer fan. They're my favorite of the three studios. I wouldn't have said that eight years ago, but I've said it for a while now because they listen to the community where they can. I feel they've gotten the short end of the stick multiple times. If they truly get a chance to make their own Call of Duty, I think it's going to be great.

If Sledgehammer's game doesn't hit, though, the Call of Duty landscape is completely different. I think it would struggle to stay in the top five games overall, maybe the top 10. This isn't 2013 or 2015. Other games are taking a page from the transparency book. One rival's CEO, whether you like it or not, has been brutally honest, good or bad, and many people respect that. Call of Duty has a reputation for not being transparent, and even when it tries, I think it can't be.

People will keep playing Call of Duty if they enjoy it. It will always be there and it will always sell. But we could be on the precipice of the dynasty being over.

How skill based matchmaking turned this into a tragedy

Here's the tragedy. You can't avoid the GTA 6 tidal wave, but you can keep a bigger player base through goodwill. Much of this could have been avoided if they had listened and kept skill based matchmaking out of this game, leaving it in ranked play. They also could have been transparent about new player protection. Tell us and show us what it actually is, without corporate speak. What is a brand new player getting to protect them at the start?

If the game had launched with an open playlist without skill based matchmaking, plus a classic mode playlist, we wouldn't be focused on Modern Warfare 4. We'd be talking about GTA 6 hitting every game. Players would go play the GTA 6 campaign and then come back, because they'd know they were returning to the casual, fun experience they used to enjoy in Call of Duty.

They wouldn't do it, for whatever reason. I don't know whether that's coming from the top or from the developer level. This wasn't a Nostradamus prediction. Everybody knew what would happen if they followed the same path: a lack of transparency, corporate speak, not listening to the community, saying one thing and doing another, and staying quiet about matchmaking, the biggest issue in Call of Duty. It's like promising a modern realistic shooter and, a month later, adding Nicki Minaj and Beavis and Butt-Head. Nobody trusts the boy who cries wolf.

I don't think it's going to get better. There's no magic formula in the next two weeks that will suddenly turn this around, because too much is working against it now. That's sad, because I want this franchise to flourish. It just can't get out of its own way.